Update 15 January 2022: I’m not so optimistic now. Anything could happen including Russia initiating a preemptive strike and the entire business spiraling out of control per the more recent assessments and escalating hostility of Russia in the face of NATO’s perennial (and disingenuous) ‘let’s talk’ stalling tactics as Russia is backed up against the wall by NATO advanced weapon systems deployments in Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, this article is still worth a read:
“We see 100,000 ukrop troops on the Front, scores of trainloads of troops, armor, ammo and fuel moved into the Donbass region, we hear the heated rhetoric, the preparations for war on both sides of the info sphere”
Or so states my well connected source in Donbass, speaking of activities on either side of the (momentarily) ‘frozen’ conflict. Never mind the Ukrainian military has been shelling the ethnic Russian ‘separatists’ with heavy artillery for weeks (a small detail neglected in Western press.)
When the shit hits the fan on the Donbass (Eastern Ukraine) battlefields again, it will be a ‘surprise’ and no doubt posed in Western press as a pre-planned ‘act of treachery’ by the ‘Perennially evil Putin’ in the next gambit of the ‘Great Game’ by empire (NATO.)
NATO actually doesn’t give a rats ass for Ukraine other than to use the dumber than f**k nazis (they’d put in charge in the 2014 coup) as cannon fodder to injure & make Russia into a boogeyman. Götterdämmerung? Well, the Western states running with a 19th Century empire mentality in a highly unstable 21st Century always poses the possibility but probably not (yet.) The European NATO states are in no shape to take on Russia, never-minding Russia has no inclination to reoccupy Europe. Of course, as well Russia cannot stand by and allow Kiev to run over the ethnic Russian majority East of the Dnieper river and open to NATO a corridor on the border of Russia’s European heartland. Russia WILL defend the Donbass.
Everyone knows (West & East) that Ukraine is not a viable state as constituted; the Western (Ruthenian) people (especially along the border with Poland) have been long subverted away from their Orthodox roots and are unrecognizable as the same ethnic people (Rusyn) in Belarus, Hungary, Serbia and trans-Carpathia in Ukraine. These people (Ruthenian-Rusyn) have been targeted by cultural subversion for a couple of hundred years in Catholic associated empire (Habsburg, et al) efforts to wrest their identity away from Kievian Rus and ethnic/cultural kinship with Russia. There is really little new in this; a historical inheritance predating the Nazi proper invasion and predating Napoleon’s invasion of Russia back to the Swedish invasion at the beginning of the 18th Century. Western empire in several incarnations have coveted Russia for over three centuries, and the Western Ukrainians (ethnic Ruthenians, actually) would be naturally aligned with the Polish who’d Catholicized them and it should come as little surprise these people sided with the Nazis (proper) in WWII because they cannot be rehabilitated in any sense of coexistence with Russia and Russians.
It is in the region of the Polish border where the Ukrainian (Nazi collaborator) Stephan Bandera nazi element/legacy is absolutely entrenched (formerly Orthodox but now ‘Eastern Rite’ Catholics answering to Rome), a community deeply saturated with antipathy to Russia and these ‘people’ (if they can recalled that) will never integrate to a Ukraine of the East with its majority ethnic Russian (Orthodox) population. Both sides (NATO/Russia) know this.
Rather than negotiate a reasonable divorce that would split Ukraine into two states with the Dnieper River as the rough boundary (Kiev and Odessa should be in the East) along ethnic lines, NATO simply intends the inevitable Ukraine breakup will happen in such a way as to make Russia into the Western Press’ boogeyman.
I doubt it’s going to lead to WWIII, Europe isn’t ready for this war, it’ll likely just work out as an expensive exercise to make Russia into the villain, little more than that. How much territory Russia will take will depend on kinetic developments to some extent… but I expect Kiev and Odessa could easily be annexed to Russia (perhaps later divided between Russia and a ‘proper’ Ukraine.) There’s possibility of a triple partition; in general terms an ethnic Ruthenian Western (Poland border area) ‘nazified’ sector nobody will want, a central sector populated in majority by proper ethnic Ukrainians and East of the Dnieper which is largely ethnic Russian majority.
The nazis (literally represented in Azov Battalion et al) will begin their offensive and the Russian army will outflank the Donbass front and cut off the Ukrainian supply lines (taking Kiev in the process) and NATO, after having pumped in enough weapons and munitions to insure a bloodbath, will allow the Ukrainian military to be crushed. This will be the West’s convenient means of disposing of the most radical (out of the closet) nazis, a big no-no (the 21st Century’s nazi meme in the guise of NATO disallows flying any flag except the false flag of democracy.)
No matter the immense amount of casualties this will cause, ‘the more blood the better’ from the Western intelligence agencies propaganda apparatchiks point of view as the entire Western world is propagandized concerning ‘Evil Putin’ and ‘crude Russian aggression.’ Thus, the de facto split of Ukraine is accomplished in a comic strip written by Satan where Western Ukraine (what Russia won’t care to absorb) will be propped up by the West with psychologically infantile territorial claim over a Russian population they had terrorized since February 2014.
Russia will be compelled to defend the Donbass, but for appearances (international law) sake, will have to let the nazis initiate the war, resulting in much higher casualties. ‘Preemptive War’ is an international law oxymoron embraced solely by lawless regimes and adhering to the law is a disadvantage Russia will overcome in it’s impatience that finally decides the most economical means of settling the issue is to evict the nazis altogether from territory East of the Dnieper. Of course the West’s propagandists will take this opportunity to convince its gullible populations ‘Russia’s aggression’ justifies immense, new and limitless armaments purchases in a spiraling out of control geopolitical tension that must inevitably lead to the West’s Götterdämmerung after all.
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A former Sergeant of Operations and Intelligence for Special Forces, Ronald Thomas West is a retired investigator (living in exile) whose work focus had been anti-corruption. Ronald had lived over thirty years in close association with Blackfeet Indians (those who still speak their language), and is published in international law as a layman: The Right of Self- Determination of Peoples and It’s Application to Indigenous People in The USA or The Mueller-Wilson Report, co-authored with Dr Mark D Cole. Ronald has been adjunct professor of American Constitutional Law at Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany (for English credit, summer semester 2008.) Ronald’s formal educational background (no degree) is social psychology. His therapeutic device is satire.
Contact: penucquemspeaks@googlemail.com
“Non-cooperation with evil is as much a duty as cooperation with the good” -Mahatma Ghandi
Ronald Thomas West 